原料價格飛漲,美國冰淇淋也要漲價
聯合利華公司(Unilever)已經受到了通貨膨脹的沖擊——現在,這股沖擊正向你迎面撲來。
隨著投入成本不斷上升,聯合利華下調了今年余下數月的利潤預期。受此影響,7月22日歐洲股市午盤聯合利華股價下跌約5.6%。作為快消品巨頭,聯合利華旗下有Ben & Jerry’s冰淇淋、好樂門(Hellman's)蛋黃醬、多芬(Dove)洗發水和陽光(Sunlight)洗衣粉等眾多產品。
聯合利華在7月22日上午公布的半年報中指出,棕櫚油等原材料、包裝、貨運和全球經銷成本正在以2008年以來的最快速度上漲,備受關注的預期營業利潤率將由19.8%下調至18.8%。下調后的預期營業利潤率接近去年新冠疫情期間的水平。也就是說,聯合利華今年依然無法達到營業利潤率20%的目標。
被抑制的需求、全球供應鏈短缺和不斷飆升的大宗商品價格共同導致了通脹上升,迫使各大企業做出艱難的抉擇:要么把成本轉嫁給消費者,要么自行消化成本、眼睜睜看著利潤縮水。聯合利華稱,全球190個國家每天都有25億人在使用聯合利華旗下的品牌。
未來聯合利華計劃更快提高巴西和南亞等市場的商品價格,同時在歐洲市場更努力減緩消費下降。
聯合利華的首席執行官喬安路(Alan Jope)指出,成本波動和價格上漲的時機讓公司的營業利潤變得更難以預測。但他向投資者保證:“我們正在對此進行動態管理,預計2021年基本營業利潤率將與今年持平?!?/p>
不過,這一消息還是令市場觀察人士措手不及。7月22日,美銀證券(Bank of America Securities)的投資者報告中,分析師對聯合利華下調營業利潤率預期表示驚訝,并指出“2021年第一季度乃至6月中旬時,管理層對于管控投入成本壓力還非常有信心”。
目前,美銀證券仍然維持聯合利華的評級為“買入”,并表示聯合利華的股價如今比同行低20%,這一下跌并不合理。
日用雜貨價格上漲
聯合利華不是唯一提高商品價格的公司。其競爭對手寶潔(Proctor & Gamble)正著手將紙尿褲和女性護理產品的價格提高5%至10%。寶潔的首席執行官大衛?泰勒于6月在《財富》全球論壇上表示,通脹是“真實存在的”。
“紙漿、紙張、一切和油有關的東西、塑料包裝都在漲價??ㄜ囘\輸成本大幅上漲,海運運費大幅上漲。各方面的成本都在上漲……我們將無可避免地看到通貨膨脹率上升。上升多少?我不知道?!?/p>
標普全球(S&P Global)的一項調研顯示,這一現象可能會持續下去。這家市場調研公司指出,盡管一些較大的壓力點將會得到緩解,但通貨膨脹率不會很快回落至美聯儲(Federal Reserve)的目標水平。目前美聯儲的通貨膨脹率目標為2%,遠低于5月實際錄得的核心個人消費支出物價指數3.4%。報告指出,零售和制造業價格漲幅居前。
而且別忘了,瑞銀集團(UBS)的首席經濟學家保羅?唐納文指出:“美國兩黨對于通脹問題的看法截然不同?!苯诿绹偨y喬?拜登和共和黨參議院少數派領導人米奇?麥康奈爾的講話證實了唐納文的觀點。拜登總統表示,汽車價格很快就會回落到新冠疫情前的水平;麥康奈爾則稱,通貨膨脹使“所有東西都價格飛漲”。
唐納文說,他們都錯了。
但就冰淇淋而言,麥康奈爾可能是對。(財富中文網)
譯者:錢功毅
聯合利華公司(Unilever)已經受到了通貨膨脹的沖擊——現在,這股沖擊正向你迎面撲來。
隨著投入成本不斷上升,聯合利華下調了今年余下數月的利潤預期。受此影響,7月22日歐洲股市午盤聯合利華股價下跌約5.6%。作為快消品巨頭,聯合利華旗下有Ben & Jerry’s冰淇淋、好樂門(Hellman's)蛋黃醬、多芬(Dove)洗發水和陽光(Sunlight)洗衣粉等眾多產品。
聯合利華在7月22日上午公布的半年報中指出,棕櫚油等原材料、包裝、貨運和全球經銷成本正在以2008年以來的最快速度上漲,備受關注的預期營業利潤率將由19.8%下調至18.8%。下調后的預期營業利潤率接近去年新冠疫情期間的水平。也就是說,聯合利華今年依然無法達到營業利潤率20%的目標。
被抑制的需求、全球供應鏈短缺和不斷飆升的大宗商品價格共同導致了通脹上升,迫使各大企業做出艱難的抉擇:要么把成本轉嫁給消費者,要么自行消化成本、眼睜睜看著利潤縮水。聯合利華稱,全球190個國家每天都有25億人在使用聯合利華旗下的品牌。
未來聯合利華計劃更快提高巴西和南亞等市場的商品價格,同時在歐洲市場更努力減緩消費下降。
聯合利華的首席執行官喬安路(Alan Jope)指出,成本波動和價格上漲的時機讓公司的營業利潤變得更難以預測。但他向投資者保證:“我們正在對此進行動態管理,預計2021年基本營業利潤率將與今年持平?!?/p>
不過,這一消息還是令市場觀察人士措手不及。7月22日,美銀證券(Bank of America Securities)的投資者報告中,分析師對聯合利華下調營業利潤率預期表示驚訝,并指出“2021年第一季度乃至6月中旬時,管理層對于管控投入成本壓力還非常有信心”。
目前,美銀證券仍然維持聯合利華的評級為“買入”,并表示聯合利華的股價如今比同行低20%,這一下跌并不合理。
日用雜貨價格上漲
聯合利華不是唯一提高商品價格的公司。其競爭對手寶潔(Proctor & Gamble)正著手將紙尿褲和女性護理產品的價格提高5%至10%。寶潔的首席執行官大衛?泰勒于6月在《財富》全球論壇上表示,通脹是“真實存在的”。
“紙漿、紙張、一切和油有關的東西、塑料包裝都在漲價??ㄜ囘\輸成本大幅上漲,海運運費大幅上漲。各方面的成本都在上漲……我們將無可避免地看到通貨膨脹率上升。上升多少?我不知道?!?/p>
標普全球(S&P Global)的一項調研顯示,這一現象可能會持續下去。這家市場調研公司指出,盡管一些較大的壓力點將會得到緩解,但通貨膨脹率不會很快回落至美聯儲(Federal Reserve)的目標水平。目前美聯儲的通貨膨脹率目標為2%,遠低于5月實際錄得的核心個人消費支出物價指數3.4%。報告指出,零售和制造業價格漲幅居前。
而且別忘了,瑞銀集團(UBS)的首席經濟學家保羅?唐納文指出:“美國兩黨對于通脹問題的看法截然不同?!苯诿绹偨y喬?拜登和共和黨參議院少數派領導人米奇?麥康奈爾的講話證實了唐納文的觀點。拜登總統表示,汽車價格很快就會回落到新冠疫情前的水平;麥康奈爾則稱,通貨膨脹使“所有東西都價格飛漲”。
唐納文說,他們都錯了。
但就冰淇淋而言,麥康奈爾可能是對。(財富中文網)
譯者:錢功毅
Inflation has come for Unilever—and it will now be coming for you.
In the face of rising input costs, the Anglo-Dutch consumer goods giant—the makers of Ben & Jerry's ice cream, Hellman's mayonnaise, Dove shampoo and Sunlight detergent—has slashed its forecasted profits for the rest of the year, sending shares plummeting around 5.6% by midday in Europe on July 22.
In Unilever's half year results, released on July 22 morning, the company noted the prices of raw materials such as palm oil, packaging, freight and global distribution costs were rising at the fastest pace seen since 2008, and that the company was decreasing its operating margin expectations, a much-watched metric, from 19.8% to 18.8%. The new forecasted operating margins are near last year's pandemic levels as the company goes another year without reaching its 20% target.
Inflation is rising due to a combination of pent-up demand, global supply chain shortages and soaring commodities prices forcing companies to make a tough decision: either pass on the costs to consumers or absorb them, and watch profits erode. Unilever boasts 2.5 billion people across 190 countries use its brands every day.
Going forward, Unilever will be raising prices on their goods more quickly in markets such as Brazil and South Asia, while remaining more cautious in Europe not to slow consumption.
Unilever CEO Alan Jope noted that the cost volatility and timing of the price increases made it more difficult to predict what the company's operating profit would be, but reassured investors noting, "we are managing this dynamically and expect to maintain underlying operating margin for 2021 around flat."
Still, the move caught markets observers off guard. In Bank of America Securities investor note on Thursday, analysts expressed surprised by the cut guidance for operating margins, noting "management had come across as very confident on managing input cost pressures at the 1Q21 stage and even in mid-June."
They still hold a "buy" rating on the stock, and added that Unilever's share price drop—which is trading at a 20% discount to its peers—was not justified.
Grocery prices going up
Unilever isn’t the only one bumping up prices. Rival Proctor & Gamble are pushing up prices on diapers and feminine-care products by percentages in the mid-to-high single digits. David Taylor, chief executive of Procter & Gamble, said at the Fortune Global Forum in June, inflation was "very real."
"It’s pulp, it’s paper, it’s anything involving oil. Plastic packaging is going up. Trucking costs have gone up significantly. Ocean freight has gone up significantly. You are seeing it in a wide range of cost areas…It’s inevitable we will see an increase in inflation. How much? I don’t know.”
And according to research by S&P Global, this phenomenon is likely to stick around. The market research firm notes that while some big pressure points will ease, inflation will not drop back toward the Fed's target level any time soon. The central bank's current target stands at 2%, well below the core personal consumer expenditure metric which was recorded at 3.4% in May. According to the report, the retail and manufacturing sectors are leading the way with price rises.
And let's not forget, "inflation remains politically polarizing in the U.S.," notes Paul Donovan, UBS chief economist. Donovan fact-checked recent statements by President Biden—that car prices would return to pre-pandemic levels soon—and Republican Senate Minority Leader McConnell—that inflation was driving "the cost of everything through the roof."
They're both wrong, Donovan said.
But McConnell's probably right when it comes to ice cream.